Monday, July 30, 2007

And so on, and so on....

Well, this morning's City Paper is already handicapping the runoff between Dean and Clement. I wonder which campaigns released internal numbers showing that foregone conclusion? Fortunately, however, the article provides us yet another reason to vote for Briley. The paper predicts that the runoff will be ugly. Now, I am not going to spend much time on media criticism today. Suffice to say that no one can be sure who any of the alleged "sources" for this story are really working for. The press is too easy to manipulate for anyone to believe much of what each side "says" about the campaign. That's the point I've been trying to make about the inevitability claims by Clement and Dean supporters.

Enough. Thirty two of the visitors to this site said they thought David Briley was best qualified. If each of them found 10 new voters today, the number would be 320 tomorrow. If each of those found 10 new voters tomorrow, the number would be 3200. If each of those found 10 new voters Wednesday, the number would be 32000. That number, 32000 new voters turning out for one candidate on Thursday would more than lock up the election for that candidate. So, nothing is inevitable if people are committed to work for it. 32000 new votes, combined with the 12,000 plus already identified by the campaign would get close to the 50% mark to avoid a runoff. But, let's not get giddy.

Can you find 10 new voters today who will find 10 tomorrow, and so on, and so on....

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

But what happens if 321 Dean supporters follow the same course for Dean?!? Then 322 Clement supporters for Clement...then 323 Gentry supporters...then infinity Dozier supporters... until Eaton finally ups the ante to infinity... PLUS ONE!!

I just don't know if your proposed path is gonna work out so hot.

Alan Coverstone said...

Huh? I think that's my point. If alot of people actually decide to vote who have not planned to do so previously...for whatever candidate...then the polls will be dreadfully wrong. The election is in the voters' control if they vote instead of staying home or making fun of those who point out that polls don't determine winners unless you let them. I think we agree, anonymous...but I can't really be sure. At some point everyone votes, but the present polls which the newspapers seem to be treating as finished election returns, assume that less than 1/3 of eligible voters in Nashville will do so. So, there is plenty of room for Dean supporters, Briley supporters, Clement supporters, Dozier supporters, Gentry supporters, or even Eaton supporters to win despite what polls have supposedly said.

That's all. Please don't try to portray me as at all antagonistic toward anyone. I would think anyone's campaign would understand that votes not polls determine outcomes and try to get that message across to its supporters. I just don't think newspapers or blog commenters can really prove that simple point wrong.

Are Dean's supporters motivated to make the kind of surge you describe, or do they think the election is already in the bag?

Anonymous said...

"Can you find 10 new voters today"

Not likely. And if you started this last week, half the country would be voting for your candidate by election day. See the logical problem, here?

Alan Coverstone said...

I did it.

Dave said...

So did I! Go Briley!